Thursday, March 16, 2017

Brexit begins

British Prime Minister avoid rebellion in parliament and received carte blanche to negotiate, but will have to face another referendum on independence in Scotland. The process of the British departure from the EU can now begin. On Monday night at Westminster parliament rejected two amendments of the upper house (Lords) and on Tuesday, Prime Minister Theresa May received approval to start negotiations with Brussels. Lords not started the "game of ping-pong" with lawmakers that would delay the negotiations and tried to push back amendments to the bill for Brexit, which oblige the government to agree the final deal with the EU to Westminster and to guarantee the rights of European citizens on the island. The preparation of the negotiating framework will be complicated diplomatic process that will encounter different visions of Brexit countries - EU members. In a speech to the lower house of parliament on Tuesday afternoon, however Mei gave no indication of when it will inform the European Commission and the EU Council for Britain's decision to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon.
Most likely it will happen sometime in the week between 26 and March 30 - after the anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, which created the European Economic Community (March 25) and before the release of the British Parliament in the rest of March 31st. 
In his speech to parliament on Tuesday May stressed that everything is on the table, but on certain topics should achieve a quick consensus. Such is the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the reciprocal rights of the British in the EU. In other will be more difficult to reach consensus, such as the British contribution to the EU budget and the country's participation in the common EU market. Fighting on three fronts. In this situation, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will have to wage war on three fronts in the next two years. The first, of course, is with the EU. During the negotiations, the UK will most likely trying to reach consensus with Brussels for key negotiating points as the rights of British citizens in EU countries, contributions to the Community budget and access to the single market. Since it is unlikely that this can be achieved, London will probably try to negotiate in parallel with the 27 members of the community behind the European Commission. "I do not like Brexit, I want to be on the same boat on which they were British. The day will come in which they will embark again on our boat, I hope"

Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission President

The second front will be in Westminster. According to British newspaper The Times, referring to the leaked reports from the government in Whitehall, Parliament will have to adopt at least seven law as part of Brexit process. They are related to agriculture, trade and tariff data protection, fisheries policy and, of course, immigration to the country. All these legal changes have to be agreed by Parliament and can cause turbulence in the parliament, which remains divided regarding specific elements of Brexit negotiations.
Final battle could be the worst for the conservative government, and the future of the UK. On Monday the Scottish Premier Nicola Sturgeon stated intention to initiate a second referendum on Scottish independence between the end of 2018 and the spring of 2019 - in the middle of negotiations between London and Brussels. May Sturgeon attack in parliament on Monday and accused it of "looking like a horse with blinders" when he wants a new referendum for independence in such an important and uncertain moment in British history. Most likely the British Prime Minister will honor the request of Edinburgh, but will try to postpone the date of the referendum itself. Sturgeon, however, admitted that there is no guarantee that Scotland will remain part of the EU and NATO automatically when removed - this is the official position of both institutions since before the first referendum. This is not the only voice for separation from Britain, which was heard on Tuesday. Northern Ireland, "Sinn Fein" also said he wanted a referendum on the separation of Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom. However, the party does not have the same weight as the Scottish nationalists and likely to trigger a referendum is less. Certainly London and Dublin would have to agree on a special regime border on the island of Ireland. 

B-Day is approaching, and with it - and uncertainty

After a day that Mei told European leaders on their intentions (jokingly referred to as B-Day in British media and political circles, a code name of the landing operation in Normandy during the Second World War - D-Day), will follow a complicated procedure preparation of the agenda of the talks until then they will start. According to Bloomberg's decision of May to wait until the end of March called into question when it will meet European leaders to prepare the negotiating framework. The reason is that this should have happened a month after the activation of Article 50, which will coincide with the French elections (April 23 and the runoff on May 7). So the French can request postponement of the summit for late May, which will cut the already short time to negotiate and to the detriment of London. 
The preparation of the negotiating framework will be complicated diplomatic process that will encounter different visions of Brexit countries - EU members. Some, like Germany insist on "hard" out of Britain, the country's exit from the single market and the payment of money that London due to the EU budget by the end of the negotiations. Others, such as Eastern European countries will be more willing to negotiate with London and can work for "mitigation" of the negotiating framework.
Bulgaria has not expressed its official position on Brexit negotiations.

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