OPEC, however, hopes for new contracts with the Americans. The contraction of oil production under the OPEC + agreement did not lead to the so-called price increase. Saudi Arabia has targeted 60 dollars a barrel no earlier than the end of 2018, which will allow it to receive $ 100 billion in the sale of 5 percent of the state oil company. The Saudis announced these days in St. Petersburg that they are willing to make further commitments - to cut not only mining but also the export of "black gold". Russia, with some reservations, is ready to do so. OPEC + participants missed their own discipline assessments. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak estimates 98% of the deal's execution rate in June, while Kuwaiti oil minister Esam al-Maruzuk said it exceeds 90%. When it comes to 1.8 million barrels of oil per day, the 8% difference can have a significant impact on the market. Indeed, not only weak discipline and inaccurate control have led to the participants in the agreement being dissatisfied with its results. The measures taken by the cartel to significantly increase prices have proved to be insufficient for the market. Novak said that thanks to the agreement from the market, over 350 million barrels of oil have been withdrawn for the last half year. If after the conclusion of the deal in December 2016 oil prices have risen steadily to $ 55 a barrel, they are now at the level of $ 48.
According to Wall Street Journal, quoted by BGNES, Saudi oil minister Khaled Al-Falih has held a meeting with representatives of the states that did not attend the summer holidays in St. Petersburg before the main meeting on July 24 Have cut the yield "in the right way". Nigeria and Libya, which were released from the deal, have greatly increased the yield, which greatly suppressed its cutbacks by its participants. Saudis to such an extent need the high cost of oil that they are ready to unilaterally reduce not only mining but also oil exports to 6.6 million barrels per day. Khaled al-Falih called on other countries to follow the example of the kingdom, noting that some allies in the alliance, as before, exported huge volumes of oil. The $ 60 oil is needed by the kingdom to meet its plan to sell part of Saudi Arabco's state-owned oil company. Only at such an oil price of 5% of the company Riyad will get the $ 100 billion needed. There is not much time for stock listing on the stock exchange to be planned for the second or third quarter of 2018. High oil prices are needed by all parties to the agreement for some economic or even political reasons. The Russian economy can not escape from stagnation, and in Venezuela the Petrodollars depend on the stability of the regime of Nicholas Maduro. Perhaps it was for this reason that these two countries first supported Saudi Arabia's proposal to extend the agreement after March 2018 when it expires. On Monday, there was another, almost historic speech. "At OPEC, we first reached out to US manufacturers and came into contact with them. The goal - to better understand our processes, our business models, our forecasting methodology, our mining plans, business plans to establish an energy dialogue that resembles the one we have with Russia, "said OPEC's Director General Mohamed Barkindo, revealing OPEC and US plans to discuss the current market situation in the fourth quarter of 2017. The sharp increase in shale oil production in the United States has been cited as one of the main factors that led to the equally sharp decline in oil prices In 2014. In addition, in the United States, President Barack Obama has changed the approach to energy exports: in 2015, for the first time in 40 years, oil was allowed to be exported. According to PIRA Energy Group's forecast, the increase in shale oil production will go at such a rate that it will turn the United States into one of the world's largest exporters. PIRA predicts that US exports of crude oil by 2020 will grow to 2.25 million barrels a day, four times more than exports in 2016. It is planned that US oil production will be invested in that year, Less than $ 25 billion. Americans have an interest in high oil prices: at a cost of about $ 50 per barrel, shale oil yields are profitable.
Even today's $ 45-48 per barrel mean that the number of US mining projects is down. "The US does not have such oil reserves that could provide oil demand for their own economy, so to speak that this country will become not only one of the major but also a significant exporter - , The leading expert of the Union of Petroleum and Gas Industry Rustam Tankaev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "The shale revolution, however, remains together with supply and demand as one of the major factors that form the price of oil. Reducing its yield means that the US will have to increase imports that are happening at the moment. And exporters take advantage of this by increasing their market share. Naturally, this does not affect Russia, "he added.
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