Monday, February 25, 2019
As progress in the United Kingdom emerges from the European Union, the issue of the various scenarios is becoming more and more relevant, especially after recent events - the rejection of the deal negotiated by Theresa May, the parliament on January 15 and the no-confidence vote the next day.
Apparently, leaving the EU from the UK will not develop in accordance with the following scenarios: a comprehensive free trade agreement (CTA) of the kind of CETA that the EU has signed with Canada; a deep and comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), which was signed with the EU's peripheral countries, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia; the two countries do not reach an agreement by the end of the deadline set for the end of 2020 and the relations between them are based solely on the provisions of the World Trade Organization, which is considered to be a firm Breckit with the most unpleasant consequences.
Shameful loss. The British Parliament rejected the agreement, with an overwhelming majority of 432 MPs and a difference of 230 votes - an unprecedented loss of government throughout the history of the state. Shameful loss.
There is a likelihood that Article 50 will be extended so as not to get the worst - Brexit without a deal, and Teresa May to gain extra time to reach new arrangements. There is no guarantee, however, that the EU will hesitate. And if he still agrees, what can he follow? Will other countries not want to take advantage of the right to enjoy the benefits of Europe without being members of the European Union?
Negotiating the conditions for leaving? It is not very likely, given that EU countries do not intend to make more concessions.
Reversing the process? This means May's government unilaterally withdrew its request to leave the EU. This option is extremely unlikely given its huge political cost.
New elections? It is possible if Theresa May provoked them. She won the vote of no confidence in the government the day after the rejection of her deal by parliament. The Labor Party was the initiator of the vote, and the vote was close - the government survived by 19 votes, a minimal difference but enough to remain in power.
New referendum? So far, Mae has denied such an opportunity, but given its unstable political position and the Conservative Party's doubts about its leadership, such an event is quite likely. Above all, opposition leader Jeremy Corbin, who initially firmly rejected the possibility of a second vote, has already changed his mind. And there is a strong public pressure and this scenario is becoming more and more probable with every new day. It is also important if Parliament votes for a legislative decision to ban the possibility for the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
An important issue to be solved with the EU-UK agreement is the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. By the Good Friday agreement of 1998, it was decided to abolish the border between the two parts of the Irish island, which was only a fact in 2005. However, with Brexit, the border should be restored as the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU while Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom will be considered as a non-EU territory. In order to resolve this problem, which will not only create economic but also political turmoil, the EU-UK withdrawal agreement provides that:
1. Is it possible for a new warfare conflict, linked to the newly-established border of Northern Ireland
1. Northern Ireland remains permanent in the single market.
2. The rest of the United Kingdom, namely England, Scotland and Wales, remains in the single market until the end of the transitional period expiring on 31 December 2020.
3. In the event that England, Scotland and Wales decide to extend the transitional period, the UK Government must apply for such an extension six months before the expiration of that period. The decision must be taken by a bilateral commission between the EU and the UK. Should such an agreement not be reached, Britain will leave the single market on 31.12.2020.
4. After leaving the single market, Britain must remain in the customs union and continue to apply the EU's common customs policy.
There are many clauses in the EU exit agreement that worry the various actors on the political arena in the UK.
Brexit supporters can not accept that the kingdom will have to apply EU law during the transition period. It is completely unacceptable for them to remain in the customs union after the transition period.
On the other hand, adherents in the EU do not agree with the deal, insisting that it does not match the vote of those who voted in the referendum. They state readiness to cause the process to be reversed.
For the coalition partners of the Northern Ireland Conservative Party, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, the division of Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom is a national treachery.
Scottish politicians who want Scotland to stay in the EU are dissatisfied with the fact that Northern Ireland will be in a more privileged position than Scotland in terms of its trade relations with the Union.
It is clear why the political situation in the United Kingdom has deteriorated considerably in recent days, and the most reasonable scenario is the extension of Article 50.
EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier proposed another option to unblock the situation. The extension of the transitional period until December 2022 is envisaged. Thus, EU Member States are not ready to renegotiate the agreement reached, and that compromise options may be sought for an extension of the transitional period. This, however, does not solve the above problems in any way, but, on the contrary, it exacerbates them, because it postpones the actual Brexit too far in time.
Brexit is a first-of-its-kind event that makes it almost impossible to make accurate economic forecasts. It represents a huge political and economic shock for the European Union and increases uncertainty for the EU as a whole, not just for the United Kingdom, which can weaken the EU's ability to attract investment and even repel potential investors. It can also have serious negative consequences for the financial systems of the entire euro area. On the other hand, many investors saw the UK as a transit hub for their investments in the rest of the EU, which will no doubt now change.
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
Against the backdrop of the extremely bad news about the Turkish economy, the positive for the Greek stand out. 8 years after the signing of the first bailout plan in May 2010, Greece officially successfully moved out of third. For this period, the IMF, the ECB and the European Union poured into the indebted country nearly 300 billion euros. A part of the investors registered losses in the debt adjustment. The Greeks realized that the flow of European money would decrease over time.
20.08.2018 The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) - the eurozone rescue fund, officially reshuffle that Greece has successfully gone out of its last program. "Today we can safely conclude the EMS program without additional rescue programs, because for the first time since the beginning of 2010 Greece can stand on its feet," said the chairman of the rescue fund management, Mariou Santenu.
Several graphs drawn by Nadya Garbi, economist at Perspectives Pictet, show mixed signals. On the one hand, Greece reports a primary surplus. At the same time there is a significant increase in debt, despite the adjustment.
Thursday, August 16, 2018
The last severe collapse of the Turkish lira is the heaviest in 20 years. Erdogan's appeals to his people in the past to exchange foreign currencies in Turkish pounds now give extra weight to the damage. Turkey's crisis today is the same as the 2001 process, which actually allowed Erdogan to take power. But the scale is even bigger.
Turkey is a country where social differences reach huge extremes. When inflation intensifies when the pound shakes and stores each day put new price tags, then especially those who have so far had little to begin with. Today the poor Turks are even poorer, and Allah will not pay their bills. Such crises also do not spare the rich, because most of them have long funded their everyday life or business with the help of lucrative euro-dollar loans or dollars, which now, because of the decline in the Turkish lira, suddenly became unbearably expensive, we read in the comment.
Turkey has a very rich experience of crises. The current crisis leads to the division of society, which can have unpredictable consequences. The new drop of the Turkish lira on 10 August is the most powerful fall in that currency since 20 years. Erdogan has shaped his political system according to his preferences, which has led him to the current economic and social crisis.
The Islamist focus of Erdogan's policy does not help the increasingly troubled Turks. The country's administration has long been in the hands of Erdogan, but this does not prevent disputes between members of the ruling relatives caste. While Erdogan is urging interest rates to reduce artificially his brother-in-law Berat Albaicar, as a finance minister, he constantly insists on the independence of the Turkish issuing bank, which alone has the right to manage the interest.
Erdogan's promises that the Turks would prosper under his rule proved to be a complete lie. The inflation rate of 79%, which accompanies the 2001 crisis, is in the memories of the Turks and is increasingly apparent on the horizon. The previous crisis was also triggered by political factors, whereas in the present they are literally predominant.
Unfortunately, Ergdogan's acute Muslim policy has brought him great problems with the United States, as well as some quarrels with the EU. This makes it more difficult to predict the development of the crisis. The war in Syria has brought further damage to Turkey's relations with its partners and NATO. Erdogan's exploitation has outlined the possibility for Russia to realize its Bosphorus-related interests, which it can not accomplish while Turkey is in good relations with NATO and the West.
It is definitely a spectacular end of the next Turkish economic saga.
Saturday, August 11, 2018
Following the announcement of the latest decisions on US sanctions against Russia, Putin is on the border to be broken. The lack of adequate peacekeeping left the Russian government without any opportunities. The unwise behavior of Russian rulers on the world stage brings more and more damage to the already weak economy of Russia. While Russian oligarchs can afford losses because of the actions of their representatives in power, the people of Russia are becoming more and more impoverished, and are increasingly struggling with the successes of their rulers' stupid decisions.
The US authorities have announced that they are introducing new sanctions against Russia for the attack on the Russian gas double agent Sergei Scripal in the United Kingdom. The action has put additional pressure on the ruble, pushing it to its lowest value since November 2016. The Russian currency and the price of government bonds began falling early on Wednesday as investors worried about a separate draft bill proposed by US lawmakers calling for sanctions to intervene in elections, Bloomberg reported.
"It is clear that significant sanctioning actions have overwhelmed Russia either on the part of the administration, the Congress, or both together," said Tim Ash, a strategist at Bluebay Asset Management LLC in London. The sanctions envisaged concern the export of certain technological products, such as electronic devices and equipment of a delicate nature that are relevant to national security. There will be an exception for space flight operations, space cooperation and areas such as passenger flight safety, which will be judged separately, said anonymity wise. It is possible that the trade-affected trade will reach hundreds of millions of dollars. From Russia depends how drastic the consequences will be, he stressed.
After the entry into force of these sanctions, Russia will have 90 days to give credible assurance that it will no longer use chemical weapons and allow inspections by the UN and other international monitoring organizations. If not, a second series will be imposed on "Strong sanctions," said Russian airline officials, "not to be admitted to US airports, and even to the end of diplomatic relations between the two countries," the high representative said.
The Kremlin has been notified of this Washington decision yesterday, BTA notes. The British authorities welcomed the news of the sanctions. "The robust international response to the use of chemical weapons on the streets of Salisbury sends an unambiguous message to Russia that its provocative and reckless behavior will remain unanswered," a London spokesman told Reuters.
In addition, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is shocked and disillusioned.
"The further strengthening of economic sanctions against Russia can be defined as the announcement of an economic war." This is what he said, quoted by BGNES.
According to him, this war should be given an economic, political or other kind of response.
Thursday, August 9, 2018
In his quest to preserve the Russian oligarchy he uses all methods of influence. Western economic sanctions ruin the already impenetrable Russian economy. The myth of a world empire, uniting a part of the Russians, collapses every day. Russia will no longer want to be a military giant while it is still an economic dwarf. Indeed, the economy of Russia is based only on exports of gas and oil. The Syria campaign, which is aimed at fueling Europe's fuel roads, has actually pushed Russia into an extremely exhausting war, the outcome of which is of no benefit. The emerging new pipelines for gas from Azerbaijan show a new drop in the prices of the fuel, which will further aggravate the already profound Russian economy. The steady decline in the prices of these raw materials undermines the weak structure of Russia's economy. In its quest to counteract the West and maintain the myths about Russia, the Russian oligarchy that controls it uses rather destructive methods. One of these is organized campaigns to produce and distribute fake news on the Internet.
Salaries of 80 to 120 thousand rubles (1400 - 2100 dollars) were taken in the so-called the Russian Research Trolley Factory, which worked most hard during the US presidential election. The cost per year of payroll trolls with US specialization has reached $ 1 million a year. It worked in relatively normal hours - five days a week, and there were also night duty hours. This is what the Russian edition of RBK claims, citing its own investigation. The Troll Factory is located on St. Sawashkina Street in St. Petersburg, RBK says. He describes details of the work there, claiming that he has screenshots of posts from the administrative panels through which the trolls worked.
In the summer of 2016, that is, in the peak of the battle between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the US Department of Trolls had between 100 and 130 people. The factory itself has a total of 250 employees. Now the US Department is made up of about 50 people. The leader is 27-year-old Jaichun Aslanov, who officially denies having anything to do with it. RBK information also shows another - with at least 118 Facebook and Twitter accounts (already blocked), the St. Petersburg Trolley Factory has managed to attract about 6 million followers to the two social networks, and at the peak of the US President's campaign, posts have reached up to 30 million people per week. A week in social networks is published at least 1000 posts by trolls, including text, photo and video posts. For two years, the "Troll Farbica" has spent $ 200,000 on advertising on certain posts and posts. With the posts, the Russians have managed to challenge at least 40 real processions and rallies - with certain demands. The 10th events are made on behalf of the popular US movement, "The Life of Blacks Means". The number one issue of trolls was racism, and other popular themes were the freedom to wear weapons, illegal migration, and even the separation of Texas from the United States. A very popular post was the one with the animated character Yosemite Sam and the following text: "I have forbidden to show on TV because I'm very cruel, like and share this post if you've seen me as a child and have a gun with who did not kill anyone! "
We recall that Facebook officially sent data on political advertising and postings from profiles maintained by Russia to the US Senate Commission, which is dealing with a possible Russian intervention in the US presidential election.
Enhanced attempts to distribute fake news from Russia are expected. Western sanctions, as well as the inability of the Russian business to give their negative results. Putin's campaign in Crimea and Donbass swallows more and more funds. and the end result is more and more questionable. In order to keep its influence in Chechnya, Russia needs more money, but it decreases with every day. Russia's Syrian struggle also does nothing good.
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
The European Union (EU) has appealed to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to demand compensation from the United States for the high import duties the White House Administration has imposed on steel and aluminum, Reuters reports. An earlier complaint was also filed by China. In March, President Donald Trump decided to impose import duties of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. Earlier, the EU said it did not accept the US's justification that its actions would defend its national security.
The EU says it wants to consult with the United States as soon as possible. At least at this stage, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea and the EU are excluded from the penalty tariffs.
His cautious stance may reduce his popularity against the backdrop of the war threats that Russia has set in the west. Faced with an obvious choice whether to fight with the United States, the United Kingdom and France, or to watch passively as they hit his ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin chose the peaceful option.
This cautious response may harm the image of the Russian leader as a strong man, but he will not undermine what he has achieved in Syria nor harm his power at home.
The Kremlin had warned Washington that Russia would fight every blow that threatens its soldiers in Syria. The West respected this red line and warned of Saturday's attack, just as it did a year ago when it hit a Syrian Air Force Base. Russia, and then did not react, but this time he threatened to blow back.
Such a collision could quickly come out of control - an extremely dangerous scenario that was often compared to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when the world fled a nuclear conflict.
"Together with our allies, we made the Russians warned," said French Defense Minister Florence Parley. US-led air strikes were a response to a supposed chemical attack on civilians on April 7 in the Syrian city Duma. Russia said its experts did not find traces of chemical agents.
A senior French official said President Emanuel Macron did not tell Putin about the blows when he spoke on Friday but had already been deployed "certain mechanisms to avoid conflicts" and "they both knew that this new phase would begin soon ". Putin condemned Saturday's attacks as an "act of aggression" that would worsen the humanitarian disaster in Syria and have a "devastating impact on the whole system of international relations." He criticized Washington and his allies for attacking without waiting for the international arms embargoed inspectors to visit Duma, in the immediate vicinity of Damascus.
Russian military said their anti-aircraft complexes at both Syrian bases followed the coming missiles but were not used.
On Saturday, Russian social media raged nationalistic comments condemning Putin that he had failed to protect his ally. But state television concentrates on criticism of the West that it acted on the basis of a "false chemical attack". Strict control of the Kremlin over the media will help Putin avoid any major damage to his carefully cultivated image of a strong leader. In fact, his cautious stance may increase his popularity amid fears of war that overwhelmed Russia. In recent days, the state media has provided instructions for behavior in the event of a nuclear conflict and what stocks to take in the havens.
Most Russians will now sigh with relief and feel thankful for Putin that he has retreated from the brink. The state television channels compared the US President Donald Trump's reckless actions to Putin's responsible position.
Fedor Lukyanov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, an organization of senior Russian security and foreign policy experts, told state television that Moscow's warning to strike "was obviously not neglected by the Pentagon and the shot was too cautious" .
The Kremlin will also use the crisis to continue developing its thesis of the aggressive West, which throws the world into chaos and does not respect international law. Russian officials and lawmakers compared him with the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which was based on allegations that Baghdad is likely to develop chemical weapons - allegations that turned out to be fake.
State TV commentators pointed out that Trump and British Prime Minister Teresa May had carried out the attack to divert attention from their internal political problems.
Putin has so far limited his response to calls for an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council.
No military measures were immediately announced but, as a clear warning to the United States and their allies, Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy of the Russian General Staff said Moscow could reinforce Syrian anti-aircraft complexes from Soviet times with the most modern C-300 rocket batteries. He pointed out that Moscow had so far listened to Western requests not to supply Damascus with such missiles, but now the decision can be rethought. Rudczko added that Moscow could also deliver missiles to other countries, perhaps considering Iran, which in the past received the C-300. The purpose of this statement was to make the West not carry out any new attacks on Syria that could jeopardize President Bashar Assad's victory on the battlefield, where Russian support helped him to control most strategic areas.
This was through a blog post published by the company. At the heart of a personal data scandal, Facebook admitted to collecting information about its users and their activities outside of the social network. This happened through a company blog post where David Beaser, Product Product Manager at Facebook, describes how the social network uses its "marketing resources," France Press reports.From the article, it becomes clear that when a person visits a site or an application using Facebook services, the social network receives information even if the user has previously exited their social networking account. Among the collected data are the IP address, Internet browser (Chrome, Sfari, Explorer, etc.) or the device's operating system (Windows, Android, iOS, etc.).
Through these ways to collect 'data from other websites or apps', Facebook measures the impact of advertising ads on both the social network and beyond. For example, Facebook collects information when a user clicks the "Like" or "Shared" button on another site (for example, a news article) or logs in to a site or application through their social login login and password. Facebook collects information from ads on other platforms as long as they belong to companies that are part of the giant's advertisers network. So the social network gathers information and if someone clicks on any such paid message.
"We require sites and apps that use our resources to tell you that they are collecting information, and that they share it with us, and we ask them to ask for permission," said David Baiser.
Using a third-party application offered on Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, UK, has grown to dozens of millions of users of the largest social network in the world without their knowledge
Since the beginning of the year, he has raised $ 10 million. The next presidential election in the United States is over 2.5 years, but Donald Trump's reelection campaign has already begun. Since the beginning of 2018, funding has now been raised to $ 10 million, according to Reuters.Unlike other acting presidents before him, Trump decided to start actively raising funds much earlier in his first term.
Since the last campaign, 22 million dollars have remained, but nearly 4 of them have been spent on legal services, including the investigation into relations with Russia. Thus, the remainder of them together with the newly attracted funds amounted to a total of about 28 million dollars.
Trump is allegedly able to use part of the money he collected to help his Republican counterparties in the Congress's mid-term elections in November this year.
The funds will be directed to non-governmental organizations in the country. France will provide € 50 million to finance various humanitarian projects in Syria, France Press reports. This became clear after yesterday's meeting between President Emmanuel Makron and representatives of non-governmental organizations, including Doctors Worldwide, Cair, French Red Cross, Action against Hunger, Maltese Order, International First Aid.
A total of about 20 organizations operating in Syria will receive funding from the French state. For this purpose, they will have to present specific projects, with priority being given to Idlib, where there are around 1.2 million displaced by the conflict, according to UN figures. Other important places are in areas recently released from the control of the Islamic State, such as Gut and Northwest Syria.
The UN estimates that 13 million Syrians, of whom 6 million children, need humanitarian aid.
Eric Lobendel is categorical that Bashar Assad will fall out of power at some point, but it must be time if there will be more strikes in Syria depends only on the Syrian authorities, the regime and its allies as well as on the residual chemical weapons. This is what the French Ambassador to Bulgaria Eric Lobendel said in an interview with Nova. He added that the strikes were targeted for specific purposes in Syria and that the first estimates were effective.
"In terms of hit success, our assessment is that they were successful. Syrian Air Force Defense was by no means effective, "the ambassador said.
According to him, if the regime in Syria still has chemical weapons, the verification mechanism needs to be restored. "This is an extremely strict mechanism that was set up by the UN and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons," said Eric Lobendel.
The Ambassador added that France had insisted on such hits in 2013, but for various reasons they were not implemented. "To date, we have no certainty as to what chemical weapons are in Syria," the ambassador said.
He also explained that Paris has proposed a general action plan in Syria, which consists of 4 steps that must be carried out gradually in order to establish lasting peace and democracy in the state. The first is the complete destruction of the Syrian chemical program. The second step is the complete elimination of terrorists from an Islamic state. After that, military action must be discontinued and humanitarian action taken. Finally, a lasting political solution must be achieved.
"What we wanted to achieve with these blows is to look for a political solution, not a military solution. The goal is not Bashar Assad, because his removal is the fourth step of our plan. It can not be done at the same time. The removal of Assad is linked to a lasting political solution. There must be a new Constitution in Syria, new elections. The Syrian people must choose their fate, "said Eric Lobendel.
The ambassador is clear that Syria can not have a lasting political future with Assad. "There will be a moment to go. The way of political settlement is gradual, "he said.
The head of the French mission in Bulgaria added that the goal of the West is to convince Russia that it is time to start playing a constructive role in Syria. "Russia has interests in Syria, but it does not stand in a constructive way. After these blows, we regained confidence. We need to make the Russians understand that they have to act constructively, "the ambassador added.
Friday, April 13, 2018
The company's lawyers did not appear at the hearing. A court in Moscow ruled to block the work of the Russian Telegram application on the territory of the country, RIA Novosti reported. Thus, the Taganski court upheld a claim from the Russian Broadcasting Supervision Service. The Office is authorized to execute this measure immediately.
The main criticisms of the oligarchs are because of the allegedly "semi-criminal" means of enrichment and their "excessive political influence"
Almost all participants in a poll of the Russian sociological center BCIOM believe that there are oligarchs in Russia, TASS reported. Ninety-four per cent of the respondents "have no doubt about the presence of oligarchs in the country," said the poll published today. Three per cent of respondents say there are no oligarchs in Russia; they still do not answer. In the "popular ranking" of the most famous oligarchs in Russia, the businessman Roman Abramovich is headed by 15 per cent of the survey participants.
The most commonly questioned people are the oligarchs as people of great wealth (52 per cent of those who recognize the presence of oligarchs in Russia). According to 44 per cent, the oligarchs are more damaging than the country's benefits, 9 per cent think the benefits are more, and 36 per cent - that the "benefits and damages are roughly equal."
The main criticisms of the oligarchs are because of their supposedly "semi-criminal" means of enrichment and their "excessive political influence", says the director of BCIOM Valeriy Fedorov.
The poll was conducted on 7 and 8 April on the phone by 2000 adult citizens of Russia with a maximum error of up to 2.2 per cent, with a probability of 95 per cent.