Breckith, increasingly impossible

As progress in the United Kingdom emerges from the European Union, the issue of the various scenarios is becoming more and more relevant, especially after recent events - the rejection of the deal negotiated by Theresa May, the parliament on January 15 and the no-confidence vote the next day.

What next?

Apparently, leaving the EU from the UK will not develop in accordance with the following scenarios: a comprehensive free trade agreement (CTA) of the kind of CETA that the EU has signed with Canada; a deep and comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), which was signed with the EU's peripheral countries, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia; the two countries do not reach an agreement by the end of the deadline set for the end of 2020 and the relations between them are based solely on the provisions of the World Trade Organization, which is considered to be a firm Breckit with the most unpleasant consequences.

Shameful loss. The British Parliament rejected the agreement, with an overwhelming majority of 432 MPs and a difference of 230 votes - an unprecedented loss of government throughout the history of the state. Shameful loss.

There is a likelihood that Article 50 will be extended so as not to get the worst - Brexit without a deal, and Teresa May to gain extra time to reach new arrangements. There is no guarantee, however, that the EU will hesitate. And if he still agrees, what can he follow? Will other countries not want to take advantage of the right to enjoy the benefits of Europe without being members of the European Union?

Negotiating the conditions for leaving? It is not very likely, given that EU countries do not intend to make more concessions.

Reversing the process? This means May's government unilaterally withdrew its request to leave the EU. This option is extremely unlikely given its huge political cost.

New elections? It is possible if Theresa May provoked them. She won the vote of no confidence in the government the day after the rejection of her deal by parliament. The Labor Party was the initiator of the vote, and the vote was close - the government survived by 19 votes, a minimal difference but enough to remain in power.

New referendum? So far, Mae has denied such an opportunity, but given its unstable political position and the Conservative Party's doubts about its leadership, such an event is quite likely. Above all, opposition leader Jeremy Corbin, who initially firmly rejected the possibility of a second vote, has already changed his mind. And there is a strong public pressure and this scenario is becoming more and more probable with every new day. It is also important if Parliament votes for a legislative decision to ban the possibility for the UK to leave the EU without a deal.

Why do the British not like the deal with the EU?

An important issue to be solved with the EU-UK agreement is the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. By the Good Friday agreement of 1998, it was decided to abolish the border between the two parts of the Irish island, which was only a fact in 2005. However, with Brexit, the border should be restored as the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU while Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom will be considered as a non-EU territory. In order to resolve this problem, which will not only create economic but also political turmoil, the EU-UK withdrawal agreement provides that:

1. Is it possible for a new warfare conflict, linked to the newly-established border of Northern Ireland

1. Northern Ireland remains permanent in the single market.

2. The rest of the United Kingdom, namely England, Scotland and Wales, remains in the single market until the end of the transitional period expiring on 31 December 2020.

3. In the event that England, Scotland and Wales decide to extend the transitional period, the UK Government must apply for such an extension six months before the expiration of that period. The decision must be taken by a bilateral commission between the EU and the UK. Should such an agreement not be reached, Britain will leave the single market on 31.12.2020.

4. After leaving the single market, Britain must remain in the customs union and continue to apply the EU's common customs policy.

There are many clauses in the EU exit agreement that worry the various actors on the political arena in the UK.

Brexit supporters can not accept that the kingdom will have to apply EU law during the transition period. It is completely unacceptable for them to remain in the customs union after the transition period.

On the other hand, adherents in the EU do not agree with the deal, insisting that it does not match the vote of those who voted in the referendum. They state readiness to cause the process to be reversed.

For the coalition partners of the Northern Ireland Conservative Party, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, the division of Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom is a national treachery.

Scottish politicians who want Scotland to stay in the EU are dissatisfied with the fact that Northern Ireland will be in a more privileged position than Scotland in terms of its trade relations with the Union.

It is clear why the political situation in the United Kingdom has deteriorated considerably in recent days, and the most reasonable scenario is the extension of Article 50.

EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier proposed another option to unblock the situation. The extension of the transitional period until December 2022 is envisaged. Thus, EU Member States are not ready to renegotiate the agreement reached, and that compromise options may be sought for an extension of the transitional period. This, however, does not solve the above problems in any way, but, on the contrary, it exacerbates them, because it postpones the actual Brexit too far in time.

Beyond the scenarios

Brexit is a first-of-its-kind event that makes it almost impossible to make accurate economic forecasts. It represents a huge political and economic shock for the European Union and increases uncertainty for the EU as a whole, not just for the United Kingdom, which can weaken the EU's ability to attract investment and even repel potential investors. It can also have serious negative consequences for the financial systems of the entire euro area. On the other hand, many investors saw the UK as a transit hub for their investments in the rest of the EU, which will no doubt now change.

Brexit begins

British Prime Minister avoid rebellion in parliament and received carte blanche to negotiate, but will have to face another referendum on independence in Scotland. The process of the British departure from the EU can now begin. On Monday night at Westminster parliament rejected two amendments of the upper house (Lords) and on Tuesday, Prime Minister Theresa May received approval to start negotiations with Brussels. Lords not started the "game of ping-pong" with lawmakers that would delay the negotiations and tried to push back amendments to the bill for Brexit, which oblige the government to agree the final deal with the EU to Westminster and to guarantee the rights of European citizens on the island. The preparation of the negotiating framework will be complicated diplomatic process that will encounter different visions of Brexit countries - EU members. In a speech to the lower house of parliament on Tuesday afternoon, however Mei gave no indication of when it will inform the European Commission and the EU Council for Britain's decision to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon.

Most likely it will happen sometime in the week between 26 and March 30 - after the anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, which created the European Economic Community (March 25) and before the release of the British Parliament in the rest of March 31st. 

In his speech to parliament on Tuesday May stressed that everything is on the table, but on certain topics should achieve a quick consensus. Such is the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the reciprocal rights of the British in the EU. In other will be more difficult to reach consensus, such as the British contribution to the EU budget and the country's participation in the common EU market. Fighting on three fronts. In this situation, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will have to wage war on three fronts in the next two years. The first, of course, is with the EU. During the negotiations, the UK will most likely trying to reach consensus with Brussels for key negotiating points as the rights of British citizens in EU countries, contributions to the Community budget and access to the single market. Since it is unlikely that this can be achieved, London will probably try to negotiate in parallel with the 27 members of the community behind the European Commission. "I do not like Brexit, I want to be on the same boat on which they were British. The day will come in which they will embark again on our boat, I hope"

Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission President

The second front will be in Westminster. According to British newspaper The Times, referring to the leaked reports from the government in Whitehall, Parliament will have to adopt at least seven law as part of Brexit process. They are related to agriculture, trade and tariff data protection, fisheries policy and, of course, immigration to the country. All these legal changes have to be agreed by Parliament and can cause turbulence in the parliament, which remains divided regarding specific elements of Brexit negotiations.

Final battle could be the worst for the conservative government, and the future of the UK. On Monday the Scottish Premier Nicola Sturgeon stated intention to initiate a second referendum on Scottish independence between the end of 2018 and the spring of 2019 - in the middle of negotiations between London and Brussels. May Sturgeon attack in parliament on Monday and accused it of "looking like a horse with blinders" when he wants a new referendum for independence in such an important and uncertain moment in British history. Most likely the British Prime Minister will honor the request of Edinburgh, but will try to postpone the date of the referendum itself. Sturgeon, however, admitted that there is no guarantee that Scotland will remain part of the EU and NATO automatically when removed - this is the official position of both institutions since before the first referendum. This is not the only voice for separation from Britain, which was heard on Tuesday. Northern Ireland, "Sinn Fein" also said he wanted a referendum on the separation of Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom. However, the party does not have the same weight as the Scottish nationalists and likely to trigger a referendum is less. Certainly London and Dublin would have to agree on a special regime border on the island of Ireland. 

B-Day is approaching, and with it - and uncertainty

After a day that Mei told European leaders on their intentions (jokingly referred to as B-Day in British media and political circles, a code name of the landing operation in Normandy during the Second World War - D-Day), will follow a complicated procedure preparation of the agenda of the talks until then they will start. According to Bloomberg's decision of May to wait until the end of March called into question when it will meet European leaders to prepare the negotiating framework. The reason is that this should have happened a month after the activation of Article 50, which will coincide with the French elections (April 23 and the runoff on May 7). So the French can request postponement of the summit for late May, which will cut the already short time to negotiate and to the detriment of London. 

The preparation of the negotiating framework will be complicated diplomatic process that will encounter different visions of Brexit countries - EU members. Some, like Germany insist on "hard" out of Britain, the country's exit from the single market and the payment of money that London due to the EU budget by the end of the negotiations. Others, such as Eastern European countries will be more willing to negotiate with London and can work for "mitigation" of the negotiating framework.

Bulgaria has not expressed its official position on Brexit negotiations.