Four scenarios for the crisis between the United States and North Korea

The first is a military collision. Everyone hopes, at least in words, to be avoided, yet hypotheses and scenarios are not missing. And probably preparation. The presumed likely beginning is a US preemptive strike on Korean military bases. The end - Chinese troops entering the ravaged country. The second is to regulate the problem through concessions, reflecting in particular the Chinese position, but also the Russian point of view: only diplomatic actions and forced bilateral de-sessions.

The third attempts to "sever the sanctions" of the North Korean regime, for which the United States is already taking the "maximum pressure" campaign and enjoying relatively broad international support. This time can be continued, but at risk of Pyongyang pressing against the wall to provoke the "man-rocket". The fourth scenario is "freezing", keeping calm, despite the tension, expecting tides of new provocations and outflows of relative lull without everything seeming like a continuing escalation. Obviously, you can only be certain "to time". Despite unusually radical statements, there is room for maneuvering. Two examples. The threats from the North Korean side that there is a blow to Guam have been revised and de facto withdrawn. And the extremely risky move, claiming that the United States had already started the war, received a US rebuttal, which showed that Washington is not yet ready to go all the way. We have also recently learned that Washington also has a direct connection channel with Pyongyang.